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kitkat310 · Joined: 20 Jun 2005 Posts: 303

Okay, so I was bored, and I was doing a little bit of the math..

If Phoenix beats Houston the worse they could do is 17-17. We know we have the tie breaker with LA, but if we get the win against Houston, I think Phoenix will have the tie breaker with Houston as well.

Phoenix is currently 12-7 in the Western Conference standings, if Phoenix beats Houston, the worse the Mercury can do is 13-9 in Western conference standings. Houston, is 9-11 in WCS, with two games remaining.

So, if the Mercury beat Houston, wouldn't that mean that either the Sparks go undefeated the rest of the way, they get third in the Western Playoff spot, and Phoenix will get the fourth spot as long as we beat Houston, because Phoenix will have the tie breaker..or Houston beats LA, and the Mercury are also in the Playoffs because LA will only be able to go 17-17, and the Merc have the tie-breaker...

so anyway, I believe beating Houston will clinch the playoffs..LOL, someone correct me if I'm wrong. :D

CamrnCrz1974 · Joined: 16 Jun 2003 Posts: 1689 Location: Central Phoenix

Phoenix needs one win and one LA loss to clinch.

kitkat310 · Joined: 20 Jun 2005 Posts: 303

Yeah but I was saying since Phx would be 17-17 (after beating Houston) And then either LA or Houston would be 17 and 17 as well, and if we beat Houston, then we'd have the tie breaker with them..or we wouldn't?

mranderso · Posted: Mon Aug 22, 2005 3:16 pm Post subject:

Yes, your analysis looks correct.

PHX beats HOU means PHX is in the playoffs, even if LA wins
all the rest of their games

Code:
Sac 25 8
Sea 20 14
LAx 18 16 *
Phx 17 17 Conf PHX (13-9) HOU (9-13) , since head to head 2-2
Hou 17 17

Worst Case
Sea @ San Sea
Min @ LAx LAx
Phx @ Sac Sac
Hou @ Phx PHX
Sac @ Sea Sea
LAx @ San LAx
Phx @ Sea Sea
Sac @ Min Sac
Hou @ LAx LAx

On the other hand Phx loses to Hou, does not mean we are out of the
race, since we can still get a win and LA still get a loss.

CamrnCrz1974 · Joined: 16 Jun 2003 Posts: 1689 Location: Central Phoenix

mranderso wrote: Yes, your analysis looks correct.

PHX beats HOU means PHX is in the playoffs, even if LA wins
all the rest of their games

Code:
Sac 25 8
Sea 20 14
LAx 18 16 *
Phx 17 17 Conf PHX (13-9) HOU (9-13) , since head to head 2-2
Hou 17 17

Worst Case
Sea @ San Sea
Min @ LAx LAx
Phx @ Sac Sac
Hou @ Phx PHX
Sac @ Sea Sea
LAx @ San LAx
Phx @ Sea Sea
Sac @ Min Sac
Hou @ LAx LAx

On the other hand Phx loses to Hou, does not mean we are out of the
race, since we can still get a win and LA still get a loss.

If we finished tied with Houston, the Comets have the tiebreaker.

mranderso · Posted: Mon Aug 22, 2005 3:53 pm Post subject:

What is wrong here?

if we beat Houston again, then the first tie breaker is head to head
which would be 2 wins Houston, 2 wins Phx still a tie

Next tie breaker is Conference play, which we win
13-9 (PHX) vs. 9-13 (HOU)

DTFAN · Joined: 03 Jun 2004 Posts: 104 Location: Newington CT

CamrnCrz1974 wrote: Phoenix needs one win and one LA loss to clinch.

Okay, is that the bottom line?? In the simplest of terms??
PHO 1 win
LA 1 loss
does it matter who , we/they , win/lose to???

AAEmotion · Joined: 19 Aug 2005 Posts: 39 Location: Australia

I read an article - that I'd link you to, only I forgot the link ... it was somewhere on Google news - that said that Phoenix can get into the playoffs with any of these scenes:

2 wins

2 LA losses

1 win and an LA loss

I'd personally like to see it happen through the two wins ... with LA getting 2 losses as well.

mranderso · Posted: Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:21 pm Post subject:

I'm not sure 2 wins (without a LA loss) is enough by itself

Code:
WINNERloser

SEAsan LAXmin PHXsac HOUphx SEAsac LAXsan PHXsea SACmin LAXhou
Sac 24 10
Sea 19 15
Hou 18 16
Phx 18 16
LAx 18 16

SEAsan LAXmin PHXsac HOUphx SEAsac LAXsan PHXsea MINsac LAXhou
Sac 23 11
Sea 19 15
Hou 18 16
Phx 18 16
LAx 18 16

puts Hou/Phx/LAx in a three way tie. If I read the WNBA site correctly
the % wins among the three would first break the tie (LAx wins since they
would be 5-2)

then the tie between PHX and HOU would be head to head, advantage
HOU 3-1

PHX misses the dance

kitkat310 · Joined: 20 Jun 2005 Posts: 303

So basically, it still goes back to beating Houston..

AAEmotion · Joined: 19 Aug 2005 Posts: 39 Location: Australia

That's nto necessarily the case - if one of Phoenix' wins comes against Houston then wouldnt the head to head stand at 2-2? And in which case it would go to wins against the conf ... which puts Phoenix IN the dance.

mranderso · Posted: Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:29 pm Post subject:

if PHO beats HOU, and the three way pileup is at 17-17, then LA
get 3rd again, but PHO is now 2-2 with HOU and wins on the
Conference Tie Break.

any two way PHX/HOU or PHX/LA, PHX wins.

Beating Houston solves all our problems.

AAEmotion · Joined: 19 Aug 2005 Posts: 39 Location: Australia

Mmmhmm, which is what I just said :wink: :P

mranderso · Posted: Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:37 pm Post subject:

yeah. and you were just repeating what was said in the very first post, 5 hours previous. :P

AAEmotion · Joined: 19 Aug 2005 Posts: 39 Location: Australia

Looks like we're as bad as each other then :P :wink:

mranderso · Posted: Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:46 pm Post subject:

I'm still curious if my interpretation of the 3-way tie break is correct.

And anyone else is free to detangle the 4-way Sea, Hou, Phx, LA
pileup at 18/16

SEAsan LAXmin PHXsac HOUphx SACsea LAXsan PHXsea SACmin LAXhou
SEAsan LAXmin PHXsac HOUphx SACsea LAXsan PHXsea MINsac LAXhou
SANsea LAXmin PHXsac HOUphx SEAsac LAXsan PHXsea SACmin LAXhou
SANsea LAXmin PHXsac HOUphx SEAsac LAXsan PHXsea MINsac LAXhou

AAEmotion · Joined: 19 Aug 2005 Posts: 39 Location: Australia

mranderso wrote: SEAsan LAXmin PHXsac HOUphx SACsea LAXsan PHXsea SACmin LAXhou
SEAsan LAXmin PHXsac HOUphx SACsea LAXsan PHXsea MINsac LAXhou
SANsea LAXmin PHXsac HOUphx SEAsac LAXsan PHXsea SACmin LAXhou
SANsea LAXmin PHXsac HOUphx SEAsac LAXsan PHXsea MINsac LAXhou

That hurt my eyes - however I came to the same conclusion last night. My theory is, San An and Minny beat LA and solve that problem.

I personally am having a hard time - being both a Seattle and Phoenix fan - deciding whether home court for Seattle or getting Phoenix to the playoffs is gonna make me happiest. I'm hoping (for selfish reasons only) that Seattle finish 2nd and Phoenix 4th, so they don't have to square off in the first round. That way, if it so happens that we play in the West finals, it would be one fantastic series in my opinion.

kitkat310 · Joined: 20 Jun 2005 Posts: 303

Well, how about Phoenix wins the rest of their games, and gets second...with home court, I think Phx can def. move on to the conference finals :D

Sorry, AA..Seattle is my second favorite team too..but I would love to see the Mercury make it very far this year, and playing Seattle and having homecourt advantage would help a lot..(Seattle is like 2-8 in their last ten away games..) But I doubt Phoenix will win all three, just beat Houston..

Anyway, does the Mercury have the tie-breaker with Houston, I'm not sure if that was answered yet? Because what else would be used except the Conference record?

caune · Joined: 12 Jun 2002 Posts: 1562 Location: Phoenix

Well, I'm going to trust smarty pants on his analysis on this one, so beat Houston it is!

And if they suspend Tina Thompson for her antics against LA all the better!

AAEmotion · Joined: 19 Aug 2005 Posts: 39 Location: Australia

As we said earlier, at the moment Houson leads the head to head - and it really relies on Phoenix beating them on thursday, to push the head to head into a tie ... which ... wouldnt really be a tie 'cos Phoenix leads in conference records.

kitkat310 · Joined: 20 Jun 2005 Posts: 303

so Yay..I was right about something :D Beat Houston, and Phoenix does clinch a playoff spot, they won't be able to do any worse than 17 and 17..and either Houston or LA have to finish 17-17, and we would have the tie-breaker with both..

Boy, I hope that Tina isn't suspended for the Houston @ Phx game :twisted: :D

1carol · Joined: 17 Jul 2003 Posts: 1043 Location: Phoenix AZ

Quote: http://msn.foxsports.com/wnba/story/4799004

excerpt:
Mercury, Sparks offer exciting playoff dilemma
Clay Kallam / Scout.com
Posted: 10 hours ago

As the WNBA rolls into its final week of regular-season play, a more-interesting-than-first-glance scenario is unfolding between Phoenix and Los Angeles for the Western Conference's final playoff spot.

Phoenix has lost 6-foot-8 Maria Stepanova, who had to return to Russia to play for her national team, so the Mercury are more focused on how to hold off the Sparks than winning during the postseason.

The situation stands like this: Heading into Tuesday's games, Phoenix is 16-15 with three games remaining; L.A. is 15-16, also with three games left. They do not play each other anymore, but the Mercury own the tiebreaker, thanks to a 2-1 edge in head-to-head games — which means Phoenix is really two games ahead with three games to play.

The Mercury's magic number is two — meaning any combination of Phoenix wins and L.A. losses that adds up to two gives the Mercury the final playoff berth, and obviously a win over 23-8 Sacramento in Sacramento would be a huge step in the right direction for Phoenix.

1carol · Joined: 17 Jul 2003 Posts: 1043 Location: Phoenix AZ

Quote: http://www.wnba.com/statistics/playoff_picture.html?rss=true
Excerpt:

WNBA Playoff Picture
Tiebreaker Basis

Two Teams
- Games vs. Each Other teams
- Winning %/Conference
- Winning %/Conference - Playoff Teams
- Winning %/Other Conference - Playoff Teams
- Best Point Differential/Offense & Defense

Three Teams
- Cumulative Winning%/Games among tied teams
- Winning %/Conference
- Winning %/Conference - Playoff Teams
- Winning %/Other Conference - Playoff Teams
- Best Point Differential/Offense & Defense

mranderso · Posted: Tue Aug 23, 2005 7:06 am Post subject:

Sorry folks, I don't believe in Magic Numbers. Remember
Rock-Paper-Scissors?

See Nobel prize winner Kenneth Arrow's Ph.D. Thesis for further details.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow's_paradox

Short version, three way ties are a bitch. It is possible for A > B,
B > C, and C > A in two way tie breakers, and there is no best
way to break the three way tie. Rock beats Scissors, Scissors cuts
Paper, and Paper covers Rock.

Phoenix can win the magic * 2 * games ( PHX over Sac, PHX over Sea),
but if HOU over Phx, and LA win wins all there games, PHX does NOT
go to the Playoffs. All 3 teams would be tied at 18/16. LA would
win the tie break based upon play among the three teams.

LA_ 5 - 2 0.71
Phx 3 - 4 0.43
Hou 3 - 4 0.43

Then Houston, would win the tie breaker again Phx based upon play between the two teams.

Hou 3 - 1
Phx 1 - 3

Tiebreaker Basis

Code:
Two Teams
- Games vs. Each Other
- Winning %/Conference
- Winning %/Conference
- Winning %/Other Conference
- Best Point Differential/Offense & Defense

Three Teams
- Cumulative Winning%/Games among tied teams
- Winning %/Conference
- Winning %/Conference - Playoff Teams
- Winning %/Other Conference - Playoff Teams
- Best Point Differential/Offense & Defense

Road to Playoff,

a) Phx defeats Houston, or
b) Phx loses to Houston, wins another game, and LA losses a game

dimples684 · Joined: 20 Aug 2005 Posts: 11 Location: Mililani, Hawaii

Hey everyone, :D

8) Well it all comes down to the Mercury needs to win all their :)

games then right? Right. Everyone plays hard and we need to put a tight

defense on Powell and Ticha. You right Carol, DeMya is dangerous too.

Let's play hard and play smart alright Ladies. We will make it to the

Playoff's Ladies Yah heard!!

:D Good Luck on the Game tonight Ladies and let's win this. We will be

watching you all.

Tofa,
Adrienne

caune · Joined: 12 Jun 2002 Posts: 1562 Location: Phoenix

The only way Demya will be dangerous tonight is if she dazzles in her fashion choice 8) Didn't she just spain her knee again? I except she'll not be back till the play offs

CamrnCrz1974 · Joined: 16 Jun 2003 Posts: 1689 Location: Central Phoenix

mranderso wrote: What is wrong here?

if we beat Houston again, then the first tie breaker is head to head
which would be 2 wins Houston, 2 wins Phx still a tie

Next tie breaker is Conference play, which we win
13-9 (PHX) vs. 9-13 (HOU)

Yes, you are correct. I had the wrong numbers in my head!

Mercurymaniac · Joined: 04 Aug 2002 Posts: 1197 Location: Scottsdale

DeMaya isn't expected to play until the playoffs. She did resprain her right knee last week.

Bottom line. We win we're in. So lets win as many as possible.

mranderso · Posted: Tue Aug 23, 2005 9:18 am Post subject:

mranderso wrote: And anyone else is free to detangle the 4-way Sea, Hou, Phx, LA pileup at 18/16

Thankfull plight did the detangle on rebkell
Quote:

All four teams (Houston, LA, Phoenix, Seattle) would be 18-16. #1 tie break with more than two teams is Cumulative Winning%/Games among tied teams. That would be the Sparks, who would be 7-4 against the other three, so they would be second. Phoenix would be 5-5, Seattle 5-6, Houston 5-7.

The three remaining teams would again be compared based on Cumulative Winning%/Games among tied teams, which among those three would be Houston at 5-3, so The Comets would be third. Seattle and Phoenix would each be 3-4.

That would leave Seattle and Phoenix. They split head-to-head, the next tiebreak for two teams is conference record. The Merc would be 14-8, the Storm would be 11-11, so Phoenix would get fourth.

Actually Phx would win the head to head v. Seattle, but the result would be the same,
Phoenix in fourth.

mranderso · Posted: Tue Aug 23, 2005 9:46 pm Post subject:

After Tuesday night's games, here are the ways for PHX to fail to make
the playoffs
Code:
#NoPlayoff HOUphx LAXsan PHXsea LAXhou
#NoPlayoff HOUphx LAXsan SEAphx LAXhou
#NoPlayoff HOUphx LAXsan SEAphx HOUlax
#NoPlayoff HOUphx SANlax SEAphx LAXhou

1carol · Joined: 17 Jul 2003 Posts: 1043 Location: Phoenix AZ

mranderso wrote: After Tuesday night's games, here are the ways for PHX to fail to make
the playoffs
Code:
#NoPlayoff HOUphx LAXsan PHXsea LAXhou
#NoPlayoff HOUphx LAXsan SEAphx LAXhou
#NoPlayoff HOUphx LAXsan SEAphx HOUlax
#NoPlayoff HOUphx SANlax SEAphx LAXhou

:shock: O.M.G. - you make my head spin with all that ^^
I'm sticking to rock - paper - scissors :lol:

8/23 games
Monarchs 76 - Mercury 70
Sparks 74 - Lynx 63
Storm 78 - Silver Stars 51

In plain folks speak, we have the 4th place tie break over LA *for now* cuz we have 1 more conf win

Our home win Thurs against Houston is bigger than ever :shock: especially if LA beats SASS Friday

Here's what's left of West Conf Games:
8/25 Hstn @ Phx
8/25 Sac @ Sea
8/26 LA @ SASS
8/27 Phx @ Sea
8/27 Sac @ MN
8/27 LA @ Hstn

Mercurymaniac · Joined: 04 Aug 2002 Posts: 1197 Location: Scottsdale

We are also in 4th because we have the head to head tie breaker against LA. So actually LA is still a game behind us.

We have to win on Thursday, becasue LA should beat SASS until they bring Bibby back to coach and we need to win on Sat. Then we don't have to worry about it.

We lose on Sat and we need help from Houston to beat LA.

mranderso · Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 8:56 am Post subject:

We win on Thursday, we are in the playoffs.

It doesn't matter what happens with any other teams on
any other days. Both LA and Phx can make the playoffs.
We don't need to stay in front of LA to make the playoffs.

Mercurymaniac · Joined: 04 Aug 2002 Posts: 1197 Location: Scottsdale

Quote: We win on Thursday, we are in the playoffs.

I like the mranderson. Short and to the point and very simple. Sounds like a plan.

1carol · Joined: 17 Jul 2003 Posts: 1043 Location: Phoenix AZ

Mercurymaniac wrote:
We have to win on Thursday, becasue LA should beat SASS until they bring Bibby back to coach and we need to win on Sat. Then we don't have to worry about it.

Personally, I like the way Bibby coached LA. IMO they should hire him back ASAP :twisted: :twisted:

BLAIRBONES4JC · Joined: 11 Sep 2004 Posts: 6 Location: SAN DIEGO, CA

"If we beat houston we are in"

houston plays merc and la

la plays silver stars and comets

merc play hou and sea

sea plays sac and merc

if phoenix beats houston we are both 17-16 and we have the tie breaker due to conference record as long as houston loses to la on sat. i dont see the silver stars beating la, but it would benefit the merc for playoff position if la lost to san antonio and then beat houston. la's record would be 17-17, houston, assuming they lose to the merc and la would also be 17-17 and out of the playoffs because la has the head to head and phoenix has a better conference record. also throw in seattle, if they lose their last two we could be in 2nd in the west because we would have the head to head with sea and la. if this scenerio takes place, SAC is 1st, phx 2nd, sea 3rd, la 4th. however, this is just one of many scenerios that could happen. im wishing it does happen. only important game for the merc is to beat houston. we are in if this happens. period. mr. anderson is absolutely correct.

1carol · Joined: 17 Jul 2003 Posts: 1043 Location: Phoenix AZ

Quote: BLAIRBONES4JC
im wishing it does happen. only important game for the merc is to beat houston. we are in if this happens. period. mr. anderson is absolutely correct.

Welcome

I like your way of thinking. Besides, anyone who agrees with mranderso (our international man of mystery) is OK by me

I'm thrilled with the military people that have joined the Mercury board recently. Adds good variety to our debates. :wink:

mranderso · Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 3:16 pm Post subject:

Okay, so we have several people who believe that we can clinch
tomorrow.

Why isn't the organization promoting the heck out of this to fill
the stands against Houston? Why this long winded combination of
two still on the web site. We can always put it back up if we
lose to Houston.

The playoffs have been our stated goal all year. We can achieve
that goal, at home, in front of the fans. A chance to celebrate,
at home.

Let's rally the troops!

caune · Joined: 12 Jun 2002 Posts: 1562 Location: Phoenix

Hey, why don't you call Ms. Perry or someone in PR and fill them in;)

mranderso · Posted: Wed Aug 24, 2005 4:39 pm Post subject:

I though we had already determined that every suggestion made
on the board was quickly picked up and acted upon by the coaching staff. :):)